EXCLUSIVE: Classified US intelligence warns of China’s plans to invade Taiwan.

A classified U.S. Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA) report, prepared earlier this year for the Pentagon and reviewed by the ABC, reveals that China is aggressively expanding its commercial ferry fleet as part of preparations for a potential invasion of Taiwan by 2027. The report details how China is modifying large ocean-going roll-on-roll-off (ro-ro) ferries, capable of carrying tanks and conducting amphibious operations, to support military objectives. Satellite imagery from early 2025 shows these ferries, some as large as 185 meters, operating alongside newly constructed landing docks—vessels designed to deploy troops and cargo directly onto beaches—near the PLA’s Southern Theatre Command headquarters in Zhanjiang, approximately 350 kilometers southwest of Guangzhou. The Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) reports that China is building 76 such ferries for domestic use by the end of 2026, representing nearly 40% of its commercial ferry production over three years. Many of these vessels, owned by state-linked firms, are equipped with “national defense” features under China’s civil-military fusion strategy, allowing their mobilization in wartime. In 2022, Five Eyes intelligence (comprising Australia, Canada, New Zealand, the UK, and the US) observed 30 Chinese ferries participating in PLA military exercises. Taiwan’s government, through its chief representative to Australia, Douglas Hsu, views these developments as evidence of China’s “expansionist intentions” and notes increased grey-zone tactics, such as cyberattacks, aimed at undermining Taiwan’s democracy. The U.S. intelligence community assesses that these ferries could be legitimate military targets in a conflict, raising concerns within the U.S. Indo-Pacific Command about the legal and strategic implications of targeting civilian-crewed vessels. However, experts like James Corera from the Australian Strategic Policy Institute caution that while the ferries and landing docks enhance China’s logistical capabilities, their effectiveness depends on securing a beachhead, with China’s broader naval and rocket forces being more critical indicators of intent. China’s maritime strategy expert Hu Bo called the U.S. assessment a “naked threat,” insisting that while China prepares for a Taiwan scenario, it remains patient for a peaceful resolution, viewing Taiwan as its territory and any military action as legitimate reunification.

Source: https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-09-29/us-intelligence-warns-china-ferries-built-for-taiwan-preparation/105606720

abc.net.au

China ferry fleet built amid Taiwan invasion preparations, classified report warns

A classified US intelligence report, seen by the ABC, says vessels have been modified to carry tanks and partake in amphibious operations in what Taiwan considers part of China's "expansionist intentions".